The advent of Narendra Modi as Prime Minister marks a
significant change in 3 aspects:
- It signifies a break (if not a complete turn) from the fragmentation we have witnessed over the last 25 years with the rise of regional parties. This five year gap from power may impact the survival of few of them like the NCP or RJD;
- Congress Party adopted the politics of the British with regard to managing different religions and caste sub-groups to occupy the centre of Indian politics and allowing it to combine with the left and marginal right as long as it never threatened its existence significantly to govern. This will change as first time we have nationalist party at helm and depending on the change one may the Congress being forced to re-invent or destruct. Vajpayee government was in many ways a continuation of the Congress paradigm;
- The third will be the likely manner of governance where accountability of ministries, technical support teams being attached to key ministries and once again the Prime Minister’s Office becoming supreme.
The rise of Narendra Modi is also
identified by young aspirational India which does not have the patience or
desire of understanding the subtleties of religion or caste, independence
movement or remorse of partition, they seek out an India which provides them
opportunities, choices and one that can surpass the benchmarks formed via their
open access to information and shared beliefs created on social platforms.
In August last year I had written
about the 3 conditions that will bring him front and centre - current social
contract frays (high inflation, corruption, lack of employment etc), building
aspiration, developing a local franchise in the states of UP & Bihar where
people can associate with his world view. I will let the reader judge what
transpired in these elections.
In this backdrop, getting the
economy back on the rails becomes the key focal part of the incoming
government. A lot has written about resolving environmental clearance, reworking
power PPA’s, dismantling APMCs, rationalizing subsidies etc so I will not delve
into them. This is what the public voted for, while delivering this it is the
statesman’s responsibility to think long-term. I had written last year in
October – “In effect the 4 key tenets of
the state – security, governance, economics and unity - have been undermined,
corrupting the functioning of the state.”
As Narendra Modi pursues the
public agenda he will needs to start creating a long-range plan to address the
3 other tenets. The package will in essence define whether he leaves an
indelible mark in Indian history. As a broad framework I would
suggest the following in order:
- Buy or suffer peace as long as it does not threaten core Indian interests in the short-term with the neighbours;
- Accelerate the delayed defence plans and enhance intelligence capability in key states like Afghanistan / Pakistan;
- Get the economy back on its rails in the next 12-18 months with the functioning of key ministries and expert groups in place to guide growth;
- Bring economic interest and with it political capital of key players US, EU and Japan in play;
- Invest massively in building (not over-building) infrastructure especially rail and sea based links while generating resources in parallel through divestment;
- Address in earnest the naxalite / internal security problem;
- Make long range changes in governance – changes in incentives to the states based on achievements from central contributions, move to a system of regulators than ministries, judicial and police reforms (difficult one I guess);
- Finally, remove various quotas with a parallel push towards enhancing government contribution to health and education.
While this is a very ambitious
agenda but I would address as more of a framework to work on to create a new
India. I am sure the man at the center of this all has many pulls and pressures
but withstanding that is what greatness is all about. He has to also overcome what Tocqueville wrote in 1945,”But a democracy can
only with great difficulty regulate the details of important undertaking,
persevere in a fixed design, and work out its execution in spite serious
obstacles. It cannot combine its measure with secrecy or await their
consequence with patience.”
