Social contract is the unsaid agreement which establishes the legitimacy of the state over its population. As the state dilutes this contract through inability to keep its promises, corruption or brutality in enforcing its might, the allegiance of its population frays.
The same aspects can be seen in the organizations which are at much lower levels of complexity. A family's bonding is based on emotional attachment and provision of material well-being of its members by the earners. A commercial enterprise is based on creating wealth and delivering progress to its employees and shareholders.
Nation states while much larger are manifestations of the same basic human tenets. Each nation state in the context of its geopolitical history and its political leadership determines its social contract.
The Soviet Union contracted global leadership and asked its populace to submit to this pursuit. While it underestimated the human desire for independence and openness, it also overestimated its economic and military ability. Economic success and promised destiny of global leadership at the cost of political freedom is the contract in China and and the belief that this view will be uniform in Xinjiang, Tibet or the core Han populace. As growth slows and the economy is forced to re-balance, contradictions will play out over the next decade. The Americans have contracted freedom and economic success. The politics of low interest rates, financial bubbles (housing, stocks), bail-out and the various social programs lie with the failure of the state to deliver the second part in the last 2 decades - good quality job creation.
What has the Indian state contracted? Over the last millennium, the Indian state has been defined differently in different parts of the country. For example, the Mughal state encompassed primarily northern and central India and then during the British times it extended from borders of Afghanistan to Burma to Sri Lanka. Even during these times they outsourced governance to states which owed them allegiance.
India has a very heterogeneous population with different religions, languages, castes etc. In my view there are these following four aspirations but the manifest in different order of priority for different parts of the country:
The same aspects can be seen in the organizations which are at much lower levels of complexity. A family's bonding is based on emotional attachment and provision of material well-being of its members by the earners. A commercial enterprise is based on creating wealth and delivering progress to its employees and shareholders.
Nation states while much larger are manifestations of the same basic human tenets. Each nation state in the context of its geopolitical history and its political leadership determines its social contract.
The Soviet Union contracted global leadership and asked its populace to submit to this pursuit. While it underestimated the human desire for independence and openness, it also overestimated its economic and military ability. Economic success and promised destiny of global leadership at the cost of political freedom is the contract in China and and the belief that this view will be uniform in Xinjiang, Tibet or the core Han populace. As growth slows and the economy is forced to re-balance, contradictions will play out over the next decade. The Americans have contracted freedom and economic success. The politics of low interest rates, financial bubbles (housing, stocks), bail-out and the various social programs lie with the failure of the state to deliver the second part in the last 2 decades - good quality job creation.
What has the Indian state contracted? Over the last millennium, the Indian state has been defined differently in different parts of the country. For example, the Mughal state encompassed primarily northern and central India and then during the British times it extended from borders of Afghanistan to Burma to Sri Lanka. Even during these times they outsourced governance to states which owed them allegiance.
India has a very heterogeneous population with different religions, languages, castes etc. In my view there are these following four aspirations but the manifest in different order of priority for different parts of the country:
- Stability & Security - The northern part of the country which borne the brunt of invasions over the centuries, stability and security is a key driving factor. For example, Sikhs are estimated to be 10-15% of the army.
- Economic success - The western part of the country, predominantly, Gujarat has a long history of sea-faring commerce.
- Overall progress - South India which has seen greater stability over the ages and ease of capital accumulation pursues wider aspects like education and literture. Three of the key IT hubs of India (Bengaluru, Chennai and Hyderabad) are in the Southern part.
- Low inflation and social order - In the eastern states of UP, Bihar, and West Bengal where large part of the Indian population lives on the fertile Gangetic plain this is a key priority. Pressure on land and overall resources have made this the driving factor. This is stability of a different form than the first one enumerated above.
The Muslim population in these areas would have the same aspirations but over the years their views have been polarized.
In the ultimate analysis, it the leadership than has emerged from the eastern heartland of India has defined the politics of the country (Nehru, Indira or Rajiv led Congress Party or Vajpayee led BJP). Rest of the leadership existed from other geographies more in terms of compromise (Gowda, Narasimha Rao) where the stability still resides with the Eastern leadership. This core will continue to strive to ensure that no leadership emerges from the economically progressive states of Western & Southern India. For the such leadership to emerge it will need to build a bridge with the populace of the East, something no leader has tried, even Sharad Pawar for all his abilities could never build a franchise in the heartland states.
For example, for Narendra Modi to become the Prime Minister, the following conditions will have to be satisfied:
- Current social contract frays - high inflation, corruption, lack of employment, law & order has caused serious concern in the population. The impact is sought to be reduced through a food security bill (at least in perception)
- Building aspiration - Substantial part of the current voting population is in its early youth (<30 years). Higher aspirations built by a wider view to the world (through media proliferation) is itself adding a new dimension to the social contract with the Eastern states. He needs to show the path to achieving these aspirations
- Developing a local franchise - He needs to create a significant franchise for the party in the states of UP & Bihar where people can associate with his world view
In the end, which party such a person belongs does not matter. No one asks today which party did Lincoln or Roosevelt belong, they re-defined the US. We can see how the discourse in national politics has already changed. Economic progress and efficiency will define the tenure. It will change the status quo that has settled in the Centre. In the end, as the East came with its historical baggage, so will the West.
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