Unmistakeable trends

Unless one has discovered faith or purpose in something, it is likely that there is permanent feeling of being adrift. But we have a situation today where the entire nation seems adrift and has lost faith in its leaders. Unfortunately, a nation state does not have the luxury of drifting; it will result in political catharsis. However, it is not my intention to discuss the potential outcomes but the underlying trends which have caused this:

• Regionalism unconstrained: Political democracy has become a struggle for maintaining regional empires across the spectrum, where old geographical and other divisive fissures (caste, religion etc) have come to the fore. Old divided India governed by many regional kings which was constrained by the Mughal and British empires is re-emerging over the last 2 decades in the form of the regional political ‘kings’. The inability of the centre to enforce itself due to divided and factitious polity is creating this situation.
• Unemployment: Inability of the political class to find mass employment is resulting in ‘restless’ youth. The political class is unable to create consensus to open areas of the economy which can result in mass employment (i.e. retail) or change labour laws. Manufacturing technologies is evolving rapidly (e.g. 3D printers, robotics) to cope with the western world population pressures. This inability is finding manifestation in the form of programs like MNAREGA which are in turn creating their own negative dynamics of fiscal pressure, increasing wage cost disproportionately.
• Changing communication: The massive increase in telecom penetration and new communication mediums like twitter, facebook, sms etc are creating an explosion of awareness. Government and governance has been unable to keep pace with this sharp curve disrupting old models of decision-making.
• Rise of aspirational India: With rising awareness and high income growth of the past decade has come the rise of an aspirational class across the country where consumption patterns and views differ from the old India. This is a class which compares itself to people in other nations, has travelled, likes different cuisines, is connected online and shops on the web. Their political views range from apathy to changing the country to bring it in the league of developed nations. It is this aspirational India which has not only led to the rise of Arvind Kejriwal but also the one which finds great appeal in Narendra Modi.
• Pressure on water resources: Water will continue to be a point of stress especially in North / central India reinforcing poverty, creating migration & sparking differences regional differences.
• Destruction in values: Growth and greed of the past 2 decade multiplied by the democratization of corruption across the political class and created a cynical public view.
• Exceptional Indians: There will be Indians who will continue to do well globally. It a function of 2 things: we are 1/6^th of humanity and two the pressure and chaos of our youth breeds a mind-set which can deal with a rapidly changing world.
• Movies: India will never tire with movies and their offshoots - movies at the theatre, movies at home, film based programs, movie stars in advertisements, movie stars for marriage dances, as owners of cricket clubs….

In economic markets, there is a concept of equilibrium such that the amount of goods or services sought by buyers is equal to the amount of goods or services produced by sellers. Markets rarely find equilibrium but conversely markets rarely trade at 4 standard deviations. Similarly, a country is rarely in perfect state but like the markets massive dislocations (e.g. global crises of 2008 or 2nd world war created a new world leader in US) can create new reality. The political ‘stretch & vision’ of the country is being tested by some of these trends.