Building an Alternate Vision of India

"The empires of the future are empires of the mind." - Winston Churchill

"Determine that the thing can and shall be done and then we shall find the way." - Abraham Lincoln

The Nehruvian consensus that built India over the last 6 decades has been given a pause if not a full-stop. This was defined principally by socialism, controlling the commanding heights of the economy and non-alignment. Each of these elements spawned their own direct and side effects. Socialism morphed by 2004 to massive distributive agenda by the UPA that nearly bankrupted the fiscal, ‘controlling the commanding heights’ into a halfway free economy with crony capitalism and non-alignment to giving up India’s strategic interests and defense preparedness. In essence it evolved into a state under UPA to where managing the environment to prolong the existence while the state satraps extracted their pound of flesh in exchange. Regionalism has always been strong since the early ages and India has been for most of its history been ruled by multiple kingdoms which have in the new age arrived in the form of regional parties that espouse their identities and interests.

With the recent elections, environment and ideology has turned favorable to building a stronger India. The national elections have for the first time since independence resulted in a majority to an alternate ideology and to man who that has no baggage of the freedom struggle or Nehruvian thought. With the BJP ruling not only the center but substantial parts of the country, Modi has the power to enforce his will. It will face resistance not only from the entrenched people in bureaucracy, government controlled corporates, media among other organizations. Political resistance will also be stiff as the hitherto the regional satraps which had considerable power and say and now they have nothing for the next five years except the fear that they may lose the states they govern as well.

Since coming to power it has begun to curtail the various distributive programs by UPA (MNAREGA and energy sector subsidies) with next attempt to push ahead basic infrastructure (i.e. coal, GST, roads). The decline in Chinese consumption has already led to a massive decline in commodities. These will help significantly in reducing our cost of infrastructure. The critical thing would be to institutionalize the decision-making in key sectors through setting up regulators backed by laws. This would in essence ensure transparency and continuity of thought making political interference much less easier. Whether the BJP and Modi have the courage to give up the powers they gained will define their legacy?

The commanding heights or the public sector behemoths like Air India or BSNL need to be privatized. These are the hotbeds of significant corruption and drag economic growth by under-utilizing assets.  Government as we all know needs no presence in the sector airlines or telecom especially when it will be a dead brand within the decade. Entrenched interests and labor unions will undoubtedly resist.

The most important function of the state is to guard its borders and in that context it is the key role the leader plays. The Indian elite have been fed with a massive dose of ‘pacifism’ and have understood India’s strategic dimension. Curzon (I think 1905) stated,” The central position of India, its magnificent resources, its teeming multitude of men, its great trading harbors,... all these assets are of precious value. On the West, India must exert a dominant influence over the destinies of Persia and Afghanistan; on the north it can veto any rival in Tibet; on the north-east it can exert pressure on China, and it is the guardians of the autonomous existence of Siam (Thailand).”  Nehru displayed his abysmal understanding in three key occasions – the referral of Kashmir to the Security Council, his lack of understanding of Chinese strategic thought and when USSR asked Nehru regarding India’s membership to the Security Council he basically preferred China not India! The Congress for the fear of the Bofors re-run has in the last decade given up on building the armed forces by delaying critical orders and never has in the past six decades has any government given a serious thought to building domestic manufacturing in this area. No eminent power can be at the mercy of international supplies in situation of crises (for those who know Nehru’s letter during Chinese war to Kennedy). As India stands today, it has a fairly difficult neighbor-hood:

• West Asia is facing the ‘double whammy’ of Islamic State and now a massively decline in oil prices which will create massive impact on the budgets of the Middle Eastern states. Saudi Arabia which is the cheapest producer in the Middle East has a budget breakeven at around $85;
• Afghanistan and Pakistan our most proximate and most critical border continuous under tremendous turmoil; and
• On the west, China while has built massive infrastructure and military capability is facing its own downward cycle economically and politically (i.e. HK protests) after 3 decades of incredible growth.

Modi has since election revived India’s interest and vice versa in states like Japan, US, Vietnam and Australia. It has changed India’s defence posture from ‘minimal deterrence’ to ‘adequate deterrence’ and is now focusing on building border infrastructure. While it has changed the terms of engagement with Pakistan, it is a neighbor and India’s as the dominant state in the neighbor-hood needs to acquire the capability to change its behavior. West Asia is where Modi seems to following the policy of staying away. But with our old relationship with Iran and our significant interest in Middle Eastern energy, no policy is a 'non-answer'.

I had written in October 2013,”In effect the 4 key tenets of the state – security, governance, economics and unity - have been undermined, corrupting the functioning of the state. The tryst of the Indian state with its destiny continues to yearn for fulfillment…even in 2010 the World Bank reported that 32.7% of the total Indian people fall below the international poverty line of US$1.25 per day (PPP) while 68.7% live on less than US$2 per day.” In essence a small beginning has been made but Modi needs to change the direction and character of the Indian state.