Re-engaging an ancient empire

Iran was the oldest Empire in world founded by Cyrus the Great around 600 BC. This imperial inheritance laid the foundations for successive empires that followed i.e. the Parthian, Sasanian and Safavid dynasties. The current Iranian state continues in core form to be geographically common to the erstwhile empires with a landmass greater than UK, France and Germany combined extending from Caspian to the Indian Ocean and running concurrent to the most important energy sea-lane (Hormuz strait) in the south. It has the largest natural gas reserve and the 4^th largest oil reserve in the world.

The political influence of the state extends beyond borders into Syria (Al-Assad regime), Lebanon (Hezbollah), Iraq (Shiite government and militias) and Yemen (Houthis). A continuous series of imperial power develops among the people and bureaucracy a mindset and maturity to manage complex situations almost at a sublime level. And, unlike the autocracies that govern the artificial Arab states, Iran has a far more institutionalized form of governance with deep cultural and bureaucratic heritage which allows it the dynamism. Shia Iran is partially democratic and far more sophisticated, enlightened, and Westernized than benighted, culturally sterile Wahhabi Saudi Arabia - Kaplan. For example, Iran exports its ideology and coalesces these groups into extensions of the regime; Saudi Arabia also expounds its Wahhabi ideology but is unable to exercise even a partial influence amongst its supporters.

This is the nation that will come out of the cold once the nuclear deal is negotiated and that India has ignored. For most parts of the cold war there has been limited convergence in India and Iranian interest. However, the principal points of convergence over the last few decades has been the joint cooperation to the Northern Alliance in Afghanistan, energy imports and helping Iran build Chabahar port to allow access to Afghanistan and Central Asia. But once the US-led sanctions tightened, India withdrew.

Unlike India’s relationships in South-east Asia which are driven more by economic logic and carries limited political burden (despite them wanting India to balance China), Iran is important from a geopolitical perspective. India’s non-aligned history with limited maturity in playing great power politics has kept it away from the complex quagmire of the Middle East. As an aspirational power, we need to have the ability to play the game between the Arabs, Turks, Persians and the Israelis on the one side and the more important from India’s perspective the dynamic in the Iran-Pakistan-Afghanistan theatre. This is our neighborhood and one where we have had cultural and economic relationships for thousands of years.

Global power players understand the situation well. The Russian foreign minister walked out of the meetings as he saw the last round draw to a close to ensure delays and potential derailment and immediately after the last round of talks concluded offered the S300 missile systems. Iran not into the international fold also plays well with the Russian and the Chinese as it is a source of significant US distraction. The Chinese have already placed massive bets in Pakistan, have limited historical relation with Iran. For the US which is already coordinated with Iran on Islamic state, it is critical to engage Iran. With the fall of the totalitarian regime of Saddam Hussain, the middle-eastern balance of power collapsed. A nuclear Iran would trigger ambitions in Saudi Arabia and Turkey. A ‘cooperative’ Iran allows tremendous latitude for Americans i.e. stabilizing Iraq and Syria, while restoring the regional balance of power.

The Indian-Iranian equation can build significant commonalities in energy, infrastructure and defense. I had written in December 2014, “But with our old relationship with Iran and our significant interest in Middle Eastern energy, no policy is a 'non-answer'.” It is already past time when India should have started doing the ground work.